I keep hearing all of these lists about the things that happened in the last decade and what will happen in the next decade and I thought it might be interesting to do one about CAD.

So here goes. I think that 3D is going to become far more prevalent in both Mechanical and Architectural design. Inventor and SolidWorks are going to grow by huge amounts on the mechanical side with people that are still using 2D switching to 3D. I also think that Pro/E and Alibre won't make it for more than 5 years or so. The smaller companies that are of interest like SpaceClaim will be purchased by bigger companies. For the high end of the market, Catia will be the only one in that space. Siemens will attempt to merge NX and SolidEdge together and attempt to compete in the midrange with Inventor and SolidWorks, but will be a very minor player. Here is the most controversial prediction and I admit I could be way way out in left field. Within 10 years I believe that Autodesk will control 3D as much as it now controls 2D. There will be an R&D arms race and Autodesk will have more funding to develop Inventor.

Dassault will run into problems with Solidworks encroaching on Catias capabilities. The Solidworks employees will become unhappy and will figure out a way to split SolidWorks away from Dassault and SolidWorks will become its own company. When this happens, SolidWorks will improve at an even faster rate than it currently does. This may be the one factor that will nullify my Inventor prediction above.

I think BIM will takeoff like 3D modeling did on the Mechanical side about 10 years ago.

OK, that should be a good start to get some discussion going

I think ProE will be around longer than 5 years. They are deeply entrenched in some sectors that are very resistant to change.

I too lean towards a spin off or selling of Solidworks. That has been a tense relationship since its inception.

Autodesk's R&D dept is pumping out some very cool stuff lately. I agree that they are going to be producing some very cool stuff in the next several years.

_________________
Sean Dotson, PE
RND Automation & Engineering
Free 30 day trial of iPropWiz v5
Follow @seandotson & @mcadforums & @rndautomationon Twitter

I predict :-
1) topics on forums will still include "which is best, Inventor or Solidworks" and that it will only be these two programmes, others being excluded from the comparison.
2) niche products will be produced with clever ideas, only for the best ideas to be absorbed into Inventor and Solidworks once they have been accepted.
3) Autodesk will still launch Inventor annually with "new and improved features", features thought up by Autodesk marketing and there will still need to be two or three SP's each year.
4) user requests for specific improvements to Inventor will, at best, be on the back burner for implementation "in a future version" (unless it coincides with marketings ideas on improvements).

That's me done for this year. Just about time to take wife to the pub for a couple of beers OK, may be three

PS, am walking, leaving the car at home

Specific to Autodesk (& related more to Inventor):

1) Direct modeling (a.k.a Fusion) will be tightly integrated into Inventor without destroying parametric workflows.
2) As a result of implementing Fusion into Inventor a lot of smaller spin off tools and workflows will come out of it that weren't exactly planned but will make the everyday power user's life much more efficient. I'm speaking of things that can't specifically be predicted, but will only come about organically.
3) I believe Autodesk will increasingly streamline the multi-directional functionality between their manufacturing and AEC products to a point where the models seem native to which ever system you're working on even though it would be from another CAD package. For example, if a building was created inside Revit and was "ported" over to Inventor, there would be a model browsing history that would appear as if it was originally created inside of Inventor and the Inventor user would be able to make changes to that building (probably based on rules the Revit user set up when exporting) in order to facilitate a better integration of the product that the Inventor user's company is manufacturing.
4) Expanding on the streamlined integration of products, Autodesk will begin to bring some of the functionality and toolsets of products used inside the gaming and special effects industry into it's technical 3D modeling products.
5) I believe rules based design will also be tightly integrated into Inventor (and Revit for that matter). This would be done in a manner where it would blur the line between parametric modeling rules based design.
6) AutoCAD will still be around, but it's retirement will be seen on the horizon as a more definitive date. It's just too deeply entrenched in workflows and processes around the globe to go away in the next decade.

General CAD predictions:

1) Cloud based computing will present a new paradigm in licensing CAD packages. It will be a more affordable solution to smaller scale companies and maybe even individuals who contract with larger companies. It will also mean that Automation of these CAD packages could now, more easily extend to non-traditional CAD users (i.e. sales force, customer base, shop floor, etc.) where a custom UI is developed on top of the cloud based CAD package. I think there will be many spin-off developments leveraging the expansion of this technology because the bandwidth speeds will only get faster (and more stable) over the next decade.
2) I agree with the assertion that Solidworks and Inventor will be the two dominating forces in the 3D (mech) CAD marketplace. I think that the others will still be out there but their impact won't be "felt" nearly as much.
3) I think that the uber-high-end CAD packages like Catia and Pro-e will be relegated to live out their days where they are too deeply entrenched to be replaced. I think that the ratio of the price point to what functionality is offered between these high-end packages and the "mid-range" packages will be harder to differentiate and therefore cause companies to re-evaluate their expenditures in their CAD software. I definitely believe that (at least) Inventor will meet or even beat the functionality of these high-end packages and possibly the other packages will do the same (aside from Solidworks, which is a separate subject - which takes me to the next point).
4) Let me preface this "prediction" with the statement that I am not familiar enough with either Solidworks or Catia (especially Catia) to know their finer points in order to accurately predict what will happen with them or say what they should or shouldn't do. I am speaking from a point of view of an outsider with passion for CAD and as someone who has an opinion based on general observations. With that said, I agree that Solidworks will either have to separate itself from Dassault or Dassault should somehow (and I don't know how) integrate those two packages. From what I understand, Catia has, what I call, a "use-based" pricing structure where if you don't renew the "subscription" each year you won't even be able to use the software that you currently possess. That strategy, IMHO, is a recipe to stifle growth when these "mid-range" CAD packages are making such strides each year in closing the functionality gap.
5) I think by the end of the decade we will be on the brink of some revolutionary changes in the User Experience where the traditional monitor, mouse, keyboard, and potential 3D motion controller will be replaced with a totally immersive experience that further enhances productivity and functionality. I don't think it will be in practical use by the end of the decade, but I do think that it will be close to that.

One final prediction... I think that MCADForums will be bigger and better than ever. I think that as more people move into the 3D realm, the forum user scrolls will increase in-turn. My only hope is that the current decorum is maintained. From the friendly banter, to the vigorous debates, to the willingness to help newbies and oldies alike without passing judgement or sounding condescending; I hope that this forum continues to attract the true CAD junkies out there. From any CAD package.
...Jeez, I sound like freakin' politician!

_________________
Brian Hall
"Good enough" isn't good enough for me.
Follow me on Twitter @Hallmanac

@PeterCharles I think Autodesk has done a better job of giving Inventor features that the users want. There are still things that it doesn't do that have been asked for forever (midplane workplanes between to planar faces in an assembly for example) As soon as you quit adding new features, people will stop paying for subscription, or upgrading to new versions. I saw that at the last company I worked for. They were still using Pro/E WildFire1 (which should be named smoldering tinder at best) because they didn't see anything in later version that were very different from their current version.

It will be interesting to watch what happens with Pro/E. They lost almost half their stock value in a single day last year after their financial results were reported (if I remember correctly). They are changing the program very slowly. They have spent 4 releases just removing the menu manager from the product and converting that stuff to a GUI. And I don't exactly consider that a feature. Customers will slowly start to realize that they have to move to a different platform just as the Mechanical Desktop users are realizing now (with the exception of R. Paul Waddington ) Extra points to you all if you understand that last remark.

I think it would be cool if Autodesk's Mechanical and Architectural products would contain a history tree when opened in a different 3D product, but I'm not sure if we will ever see that. Autodesk is trying to unify the GUI of their products. Maybe the internals will be next.

I think we will start to see Autodesk release CAD products for the Mac as well starting with Autocad.

I agree with this. I'm looking forward to the Inventor Mac release.

_________________
Sean Dotson, PE
RND Automation & Engineering
Free 30 day trial of iPropWiz v5
Follow @seandotson & @mcadforums & @rndautomationon Twitter

CAD Junkie/Tech Gadget geek here ...yes I too think the next decade will bring amazing new cutting edge technology of today to the everyday CAD user sooner than we think!

...and I Quote from my Reply Tweet "we will tweet our commands" JK!

Modeling Workflow
...I do NOT think Direct Modeling will become the next "be all" norm as far as CAD work flows...however I do feel like Direct Modeling is the "missing link" of the CAD interoperability monkey that hangs on the industry's back. I just haven't seen any proof yet (non pre-loaded sales/keynote demo) that we can seamlessly go from/add to a truly elegant parametric skeletal model and NOT lose the incredible amount of captured design intent and flexibility embedded ...please prove me wrong Autodesk!


Interoperability
...I think the logical evolution is "top down" and not bi-directional...think back to the AU2007 & 2008 opening keynotes...the Virtual Cities! ...the idea is to drill down and garnish the data at that particular level of detail...and the concept and reality of what we do today is design simultaneously by multitasking and sharing basic data across industries...Navisworks will have to develop tremendously this decade to handle the influx of industry specific data that it will need to access when called upon! ...however I contradict myself by continually desiring the light at the end of the tunnel vision, whilst creating the foundation by which its created upon! ...seamless bi-directional interoperability is indeed a vastly open and out of focus miss-understood ability we so desperately need


Hardware
...a decade from now our hardware will "only" have 8+ 3.5Ghz core processors running 64bit Windows 7 (because of MS track record) with 128/256 GB of ram on Ultra fast SSD's ...and we will see flash memory in the 256GB size range at high speeds...class 6+! ...this will make way for my greater prediction of hard drive-less PC's! ...between cloud tech and the incredible amount of data on such a tiny device...you will simply have speedy and practical access to YOUR programs and data were ever you are with whatever peripherals you might happen to use at that time, mobile or kiosk style?!? ...maybe even sunglasses?

...even though our hardware will STILL not be advanced as much as it SHOULD...the notion we will not have keyboards/mouse/space ball is a bit far fetched...I can't imagine touching a monitor or moving my hands all over the place or even straining my brain any harder to mind bend lines around the screen...maybe I'm just way off about that one?


Software Futures
...What I would like to see is the ability to run Inventor on other platforms...or more importantly my prediction is that the Linux community will build a SOLID and stable virtual environment to run any MS Windows 7 program...possibly in the cloud? ...speaking of which, Cloud computing will become way more acceptable (based on the prediction of high speed wireless technology surpassing landlines...but that's another debate) and I feel as if AutoCAD will fade away into the sky ...this may be more of a 20+ yr prediction though...I do feel as if the MAC version is a good thing...however not as a native MAC coding...it should be bullet proof on a virtual machine!!!!!! ...are you listening AD? ...get your s#!T together and start working on a Virtual machine compatible interoperability so that your apps are capable of being used anyone in the world!

Competition
ProE, Catia, SolidEdge, SpaceClaim, Alibre, etc...WHO? ...IV & SW will be kings! ...I'd bet money on that! ...and YES I said SW & IV...we DO NOT want a monopoly again! ...competition drives innovation!

_________________
Steve Robbins
Inventor Design Solutions & Innovations
"I believe in being an innovator " - Walt Disney
@_iDSi

I think they cloud is over hyped. You lose too much control. I like the cloud as a place to keep a backup of my data, but I don't want to leave all control of my data to someone else. I do think we will see the cloud used as a way to do complex tasks that would take a desktop way too long to do. But these things will be done as a service and the data will be returned back to the user and not kept in the cloud.

I also don't think we will see Autodesk port any programs to Linux. It is my understanding that in order to do that you have to also post the entire source code for your software under the terms of the GPL. I can't see that happening.

I agree with the Linux porting...however I'd hope that AD would step into the Linux world and assist on developing a virtual machine that is capable of running their apps robustly! ...they (AD) would benefit from this greatly...however their best buds MS would not ...this notion was just that...a plea for a strategical and logical future intent that AD should take into consideration!

"cloud control" instead of "crowd control" ...I think we just coined a new buzz word for this decade
...yes I somewhat agree...however I am relating the security and hardware required to maintain the mass amounts of data to become far greater than we can handle on an individual level, besides some of the benefits as you say can happen in the clouds because of cluster computing techniques! ...the best example I can think is the home security monitoring companies...like google and other major online data storage dependent entities...the hardware is needed on the ground even though we say its in the clouds ...point is its housed in a secure, fire, hurricane, tornado, earthquake, bomb proof shelter with somewhat of a guarantee the data access will skip a beat due to power loss or any other natural or virtual attack! ...I like this concept and feel many folks will eventually take note of this too!

_________________
Steve Robbins
Inventor Design Solutions & Innovations
"I believe in being an innovator " - Walt Disney
@_iDSi

I still have my predictions from 2003 and I was way off then, so should be way off now...

* CAD UI will leverage the Gaming UI technologies. The improvements in the gaming interface devices and the CAD interface devices will be the same. Gamers will get 3d navigation and CAD will get the next generation of gaming consoles and input devices.

*CAD will benefit from the Gaming capabilities for interaction and simulation. We will be able to put our "characters" in our environments and interact with our models and assemblies in factory settings

*SaaS: Software as a Service will become an enabler to allow the "little guy" to have access to massive computing resources on demand. Example: as you are working on a car's suspension, in the background, the SaaS analysis will be determining if you are heading in the correct direction and warn you real time that your design is too weak.

*End to End interoperability: Multiple design disciplines will become seamlessly inter-operable. You will be able to place your Inventor / Revit / CATIA ... models into virtual factories with real time notifications going to all the players as updates are made. The closest example of this today might be Navis Manage. Programs that do not get on board will become Niche products.

*We will all be working in 3D, not just "3D Models" but 3D screens and holograms

As to the actual companies, I cannot see Dassault spinning out SolidWorks as it would be too much of a competitor for CATIA. I can see them merging the two and perhaps re-branding SolidWorks to CATIA Light. I expect that will finally result in SolidWorks being able to read / write CATIA files.

I would agree that Siemens might merge more of SolidEdge into NX but not all, anytime soon. By their own admission, NX needs a core rewrite if for no other reason than to solve their unit-less problem. I expect Siemens to taper off on CAD and put their R&D effort into TeamCenter and Factory Automation. Hint: TeamCenter's Inventor integration has been described as better than their NX integration.

Without end to end integrations into the rest of the design processes, tools like Alibre and Pro/E will be relegated to niche programs.

They should start coding in multi-thread to make use of all the extra processors.

I knew I was forgetting something!! Parallelism is going to be a MUST with the current chip architecture. I don't think that there will be a new major shift in chip design during this next decade. At least not one that will be fully implemented into mainstream computers. Plus, the advent of cloud (or "crowd" as Steve so eloquently pointed out ) processing will provide more opportunity to leverage parallel computing. The first CAD package that provides (true) multi-threaded processing will definitely have a leg up on the competition.

Easier said than done though. To really do it right, they're going to have to go back to the drawing board of their kernals.

_________________
Brian Hall
"Good enough" isn't good enough for me.
Follow me on Twitter @Hallmanac

It really wasn't too hard. Even without multi-core, multi-thread program runs a lots faster when dealing with lots of I/O. Instead of waiting for the I/O to finish before doing anything, the program can start parallel I/O on different sources (ie files, network connections). It can also start some processing. Of course someone will need to layout the structure of the program and do some planning.
Making each loaded file in their own thread would be great. Instead of waiting for an assembly to finish update, you can keep working on another part file. Even just separate UI/application from model processing will make the program a lot more responsive.

Don't forget dumping off some of the calcs to the GPU. Those things are number crunching beasts.

_________________
Sean Dotson, PE
RND Automation & Engineering
Free 30 day trial of iPropWiz v5
Follow @seandotson & @mcadforums & @rndautomationon Twitter

I have just 1 additional prediction to add to the pot: Except, perhaps, in the architectural world, the days of the Draftsman will soon be over, if it hasn't happened already. Like everywhere else in the contemporary business world, the more advanced technology gets, the fewer people that have less than a college education will be hired, and the ones with the sheepskins will be made to do more of the `dirty' work. Designers with only an associates degree will be next, and eventually it will just be B.E degrees and up who will be designing, doing layouts and then producing drawings, while making less than the designers used to, no doubt. This is Capitalism (and don't get me wrong, I still think Capitalism has been a good system for us; there's hardly a stronger motivator than GREED). But Greed tends to end up chasing its own tail eventually, so let's just hope that when they eventually reach the point that CNC manufacturing equipment gets directly plugged into a PHD's brain for automatically manufacturing his concept for the nose for a new jumbo jet - just as a pretty secretary walks by - they don't end up with a 747 with a nose that looks like a large breast.